Eryk Anders vs Thiago Santos
A situation where both men are replacements but Anders just stepped up on short notice after competing a month ago. Both guys are usually middleweight but this one is at light heavyweight.
This fight could come down to movement. As I’ve said before Thiago Santos on form and flowing can be beautiful to watch. He has long powerful legs and he’s very graceful. The problem is his chin doesn’t quite hold up at that championship level. So basically I think that if Santos can follow the game plan and attack hard but not get himself caught againt the fence or leave himself open he can win the decision but honestly I think Anders finds his chin at some point in the second or third and gets the finish.
Prediction : Anders by KO/TKO
Result : Santos by TKO
Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli Jr
I think this could easily be fight of the night. Pedersoli’s only loss is a split decision but in Cowboy Oliveira he’s facing a step up in competition.
Oliveira likes to come in very loose, swinging from the hips with his hands low, showing you openings, inviting you to counter. Pedersoli, on the other hand is a good all rounder. He punches and kicks well and has decent submissions.
I think the unpredictability of Cowboy will give him the edge on the feet and although Pedersoli can stifle him with grappling but I’m not sure he’s a good enough wrestler to keep Oliveira down for that long and Oliveira has subs as well.
Prediction : Oliveira by decision (split)
Result : Oliveira by KO
Sam Alvey vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
It’s easy to right off Rogerio Nogueira these days but he’s still got very good technical boxing, he represented Brazil in the Pan American Games and the South American Games. Yes he’s a touch slower and doesn’t have the same snap but the timing and basics are still there.
That said I think this is a fight between two guys who’s careers are moving in different directions. Alves is younger hits harder and seems healthier, Nogueira always moves like he’s older than he is. Even first round then I think Alvey will time his counters better and start doing damage.
Only problem might be if Nog manages to slow the pace down and slow the intensity down and Sam getting sucked into that and possibly making the fight closer than it needs to be but as it is I think Alvey gets the finish in the third.
Prediction : Alvey by KO/TKO
Result : Nogueira by TKO
Renan Barao vs Andre Ewell
A few years ago Barao was considered one of the pound for pound fighters in the world. He was on an incredible 32 fight winning streak. Now here we are and he’s lost 4 out of his last 5. USADA, fighters evolving or confidence? I’m not sure but God damn I’ve never seen a sudden career drop off like it.
Andre Ewell is a tall bantamweight with a good long jab and a good left hand.
The problem I have predicting this is that Barao still has all the skills and ability but there is just something missing theses days. Although the fight is in Brazil and it is Ewell’s UFC debut this could go either way but I think Ewell is going to use his range to out point Barao to a decision..
Prediction : Ewell by decision
Result : Ewell by decision
Randa Markos vs Marina Rodriguez
Rodriguez making her debut after a strong performance on DW Contender Series. Although Randa Markos doesn’t have the best record she could still make things tricky here especially early on.
Rodriguez has a nice Thai kinda style. On her toes in and out. Attacking with punches, kicks, knees, elbows, trips and she’s not afraid to get hit, she puts her head down and swings.
Like I said Randa will make a fight of it, at the start at least but I think as the fight goes on she could get overwhelmed by the volume and variety from Marina. I don’t think it’s a finish but Marina to win a decision.
Prediction : Rodriguez by decision
Result : Majority Draw
Rest of the Card
Charles Oliveira vs Christos Giagos
It’s usually do or die for ‘Do Bronx’, catch or be caught. And since we’re in Brazil I think he does it. He’s been in with and beat better fighters than Giagos and I think he gets the submission in this one.
Prediction : Oliveira by submission
Result : Oliveira by submission
Francisco Trinaldo vs Evan Dunham
There’s nothing fancy about Trinaldo, he does the basics very well. He’ll take the centre in a southpaw stance and try to knock his opponent out. He has a decent jab and throws everything else hard but he’s very economic with his attacks.
Dunham can for sure hold his own for a little while but I don’t imagine he’ll win a striking battle. If he can get it to the ground that’s a different story but Trinaldo doesn’t rush in or open up enough to make it easy to take him down. I think the majority of this fight happens on the feet and Trinaldo will land more consistently and harder than Dunham.
Prediction : Trinaldo by decision
Result : Trinaldo by KO
Luis Henrique vs Ryan Spann
Henrique is big guy cutting to lightheavy for the first time. He was carrying a bit of body fat so we’ll see what kind of difference it makes. In Spann we got a very well built 6’5 light heavyweight with a good right hand.
I would say that Henrique would usually try to grind Spann down with the clinch but now I’m not sure. What I do think will happen is that Spann will get his timing and land that right hand then get the finish either by TKO or choke.
Prediction : Spann by submission
Result : Spann by decision
Augusto Sakai vs Chase Sherman
Let’s face it neither of these guys are championship material nor will likely either challenge for a major title. My thoughts on this one are that Chase Sherman gets hit too easily and he doesn’t have a great chin. Could go either way but I think Sakai takes it.
Prediction : Sakai by KO/TKO
Result : Sakai by TKO
Sergio Moraes vs Ben Saunders
Both of these guys can have pretty sloppy striking, particularly Moraes. Both guys are good on the mat with Moraes having the edge there but what does it for me is that I can’t trust Ben Saunders chin. Now as I said Moraes ain’t the best striker but he can definitely wobble Saunders and I think he can do that on his way to a decision.
Prediction : Moraes by decision
Result : Moraes by submission
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Gillian Robertson
On the mat Gillian Robertson is a savage but I think she will Cheetara a slightly harder proposition to deal with than Meatball Molly. From what I have seen of Silva she is aggressive and always looking for the finish and I think she has the edge here.
Prediction : Silva by decision
Result : Silva by submission
Thales Leites vs Hector Lombard
Do you realise that Hector Lombard hasn’t won an MMA fight since 2014? It’s like he went from being considered one of the world’s elite fighters to almost a bum overnight.
I’m going to side with him on this one though. Leites doesn’t really push a pace that will hinder Lombard and he doesn’t have good enough striking to knock him out. What Leites does have is very good timing on basic strikes which can help make up for a lack of speed. I do think this is Lombard’s fight to lose though if he’s aggressive and pushes forward while conserving energy and doesn’t rush into anything stupid then he can win the decision.
Prediction : Lombard by decision
Result : Leites by decision
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs Belal Muhammad
Good match up between two guys who are on very good runs of form with five and four fight winning streaks respectively.
Dos Santos will be very good at the start of the fight. Fast and aggressive and very dangerous but Muhammad is tactically very good and he will look to withstand the first round, getting his shots in but not taking much damage. I expect Dos Santos to win the first round Muhammad to win the third and what will decide the fight is what happens in the middle. I believe that Muhammed is good enough and fast enough with his hands and will be able to throw in some takedowns and get the nod. There’s a difference between what the judges think they see and what’s actually happening so for that reason, split decision.
Prediction : Muhammad by split decision
Belal Muhammad has pulled out due to injury.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs Luigi Vendramini
Vendramini is 22 years old, 7-0 and all finishes. Problem is that it’s his debut, on a few days notice, at welterweight when he usually fights at lightweight. I love an underdog story but it ain’t going to happen here.
Prediction : Dos Santos by TKO
Result : Dos Santos by KO
Livinha Souza vs Alex Chambers
I’d be very surprised if Souza doesn’t win this one. She’s quick and nimble on her feet with decent footwork and she can bang and I think it ends up on the ground where she submits Chambers in round 2.
Prediction : Souza by submission
Result : Souza by submission
Correct Picks 10/13