UFC 228 Predictions

Tyron Woodley vs Darren Till

The bookies have this as a even fight but the more I think about it the more I think Till is going to win it. Woodley has been out a year getting his shoulder fixed and hopefully it’s good as new but in that time the hype around Till has risen to almost McGregor proportions.

As far as the fight goes I think Till’s size and good used of range give him a bit of an advantage, he’s usually good at keeping himself out of trouble. Till will stalk forward and try to counter the counters but Woodley doesn’t mind backing up and Woodley does have fast, knockout power and I think Till can sometimes be a bit dismissive of his opponents punches but I’m sure he won’t on this fight. I see Till being conservative early but opening up and getting to stoppage in the third.

Prediction : Till by KO/TKO

Result : Woodley by submission

By the way this is dependent on Till having a relatively good weight cut, which is far from guaranteed.

Nicco Montano vs Valentina Shevchenko – CANCELLED

This is bit of a strange situation in the way that people are totally overlooking the current champion in this fight. There is an element of disrespect in it, I mean Montano is up up to a +450 underdog and that is pretty much unheard of for a reigning champ. The thing is though, I’m not sure that betting line is far wrong.

Nicco Montano has decent wresting and heart but comparatively sloppy striking. Valentina has good grappling, good wrestling, a Judo black belt and is a great striker. Shevchenko is just better everywhere and I think she finishes Montano in the first or second. I’m not sure how but I’ll say submission.

Prediction : Shevchenko by submission

Jessica Andrade vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

I like the way Karolina fights, it’s quite tidy and graceful and nice to watch. On the other hand you have Andrade who is an animal, in a good way.

I think here, simply Kowalkiewicz will struggle to with the pressure and aggression of Andrade and especially as the fight goes on. I don’t think Karolina hits hard enough to keep Jessica off her.

Prediction : Andrade by decision

Result : Andrade by KO

Carla Esparza vs Tatiana Suarez

Got to give a lot of respect to Carla Esparza, first UFC strawweight champion, first Invicta strawweight champion. Has been in there with some of the best female fighters to ever do it, including a submission win over current champion Rose Namajunas. She is a winner.

Problem here is that I think Suarez is a bit bigger and a bit better at the things Esparza is good at. An undefeated world class wrestler with a great top game. Esparza is always game and has experience but I see Suarez getting the win either by decision or submission.

Prediction : Suarez by submission

Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Brandon Davis

Brandon Davis steps up as a short notice replacement for Yair Rodriguez. Big big balls from Brandon Davis but balls ain’t going to win him this fight. Not really much to say, Zabit is a special talent and I think he will show it again. His movement and accuracy will overwhelm Davis and Zabit will get the win in the second.

Prediction : Magomedsharipov by TKO

Result : Magomedsharipov by submission

Rest of the Card

Aljamain Sterling vs Cody Stamann

Similar skill sets and similar gameplan. I think the difference will be that Aljamain has more options and a better submission game. Plus we get to hear Serra super relaxed voice “That’s it Aljo, it’s there if you want it Aljo, take your tiym, ect ect”

I’m not saying Sterling gets the submission but I think he uses it to get the points for a decision.

Prediction : Sterling by decision

Result : Sterling by submission

Charles Byrd vs Darren Stewart

Was good to see Darren Stewart get a win last time out but I think this is a bad match up for him. In Byrd you have a guy who can hang on the feet and has the ability to put Stewart on his back and do some damage. In fact I think Bryd gets the submission in the second.

Prediction : Byrd by submission

Result : Stewart by KO

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Niko Price

Dangerous fight for both guys. Price can win if he can follow a gameplan, strike from the outside and try to mix up some takedowns. Alhasan ain’t easy to takedown though and he has a hell of a lot of Judo experience and has great balance. Alhassan also has knockout power, his nine wins have been stoppages in the first round.

The way I see it if Price can be cautious at the start, pick his moments and not get sucked into a brawl he can win a decision. If it gets scrappy I see Alhassan by KO.

Prediction : Alhassan by TKO/KO

Result : Alhassan by KO

Jimmie Rivera vs John Dodson

John Dodson has had mixed success since he moved back to bantamweight, its literally been win, loss, win, loss. Lot of animals in the division an he doesn’t hit quite as hard. Still has a speed advantage over most of his opponents. As for Rivera, he’s an absolute beast of a fighter, so he got knocked out last time out? Forget it, shit happens.

In this fight Rivera is bigger, stronger and with reach over Dodson and I think those things come into play. He should be patient and let Dodson come to him, not chase too much. One thing about Dodson is that he’s a tough mother fucker and he’s never been finished and I don’t think that changes here.

Prediction : Rivera by decision

Result : Rivera by decision

Diego Sanchez vs Craig White

No disrespect meant but if Diego Sanchez can’t beat Craig White he should retire (I know he should retire anyway but more so).

The way I see it Diego can win this fight, but he needs to be clever and use his takedowns and stay on top. Craig White doesn’t have great wrestling but he can work from the bottom but nothing Diego can’t handle. What White does have is size and reach and what Diego doesn’t really have is much of a chin anymore. So if Diego fights smart he can win a decision but if not, and more likely, he try to put on a show for the fans and gets caught and put out.

Prediction : White by TKO

Result : Sanchez by decision

Jim Miller vs Alex White

Jim Miller is only 34 but he seems older. He’s had 40 professional fights and no doubt it’s starting to wear on him a bit. If this fight is a striking contest on the open mat the White wins the decision. Miller needs to get inside and make it more of a grind use takedowns and powerful counter hooks. Miller has much more experience and has been in with far better fighters and I think that will make the difference.

Prediction : Miller by decision

Result : Miller by submission

Irene Aldana vs Lucie Pudilova

This won’t be a real exciting fight, or even good. Aldana is the better boxer with good timing on her counters and Pudilova tends to lean in at times. I think Aldana takes the decision.

Prediction : Aldana by decision

Result : Aldana by split decision

Jarred Brooks vs Roberto Sanchez

Brooks is on a two fight skid and this could be a dangerous one to take on short notice. Sanchez is a good submission guy and he just likes to attach himself to his opponent, quick and aggressive. Brooks has really good wrestling and use of distance though so I’m not sure how successful Sanchez will be with the takedowns and on the feet Brooks has more power. If this wasn’t a late replacement I’d say Brooks no problem but the timescale makes you question it a bit. Still though with his back against the wall I think Brooks does enough to get the job done, in fact TKO stoppage.

Prediction : Brooks by TKO

Result : Brooks by split decision

Geoff Neal vs Frank Camacho

Camacho will start well like he always does in fact the first round is going to be great. After that though Frank’s cardio usually crashes big time. If the fight goes past the first then big advantage to Geoff Neal and I will even give him a small advantage in the first. Anyway Neal wins a decision.

Prediction : Neal by decision

Result : Neal by KO

Correct picks 10/13

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