UFC Fight Night 125 Predictions

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Lyoto Machida vs Eryk Anders

Back in 2008 while Tito Ortiz and Dana White were having issues with each other the UFC set up a fight between Ortiz and Lyoto Machida. This was White’s punishment to Ortiz, because Machida could make people look really bad. Sniper like accuracy and just did not get hit. I think back then they said that Machida got hit once for every one and a half rounds he fought on average. That’s nuts but that’s also a decade ago. He’s 39 now, 30 fights 22 wins 8 losses including 4 losses in his last 5 fights and finished in his last 3. Not a good trend.

Anders an the other hand seems to be on the up swing at 30 years old. 10 fights 10 wins with 7 stoppages. A big well built guy at 6’2″ and ex American Football player. And aggressive fighter who usually comes forward looking to land his big left hand. Not a bad wrestler, when he gets it to the ground he has really good ground n pound and likes the opponent trapped against the fence and posturing up and unleashing. Has a lot of potential but seems pretty limited so far.

Both these guys are southpaw but that’s pretty much where the similarities end. Machida has that modified karate style leaning slightly back and has excellent control of distance. A great counter fighter who really made opponents pay for mistakes, past tense. Seems like these days the chin is gone along with a bit of speed and timing, which was basically what his game was all about. And an 18 mouth USADA suspension sure as fuck didn’t help. Eryk Anders, to a prime or not even quite prime Machida would have been a good opponent for him. An aggressive guy who stalks forward, who’s not particularly fast and is primarily a boxer. Anders is pretty hittable and reaches for punches at times he can also slow as the fight goes on. Bread and butter for the old Machida but I think a different story today. It’s like Machida has been knocked out in his last 2 fights so they put him in against a big puncher, of course they do. That’s how I see this fight going, eventually Anders will land and it won’t be good for Machida.

Prediction – Anders by KO (Machida by U Dec)

John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz (cancelled)

John Dodson was one of the best flyweights in the world, only second to DJ in the UFC in my opinion. Since moving to bantamweight he hasn’t fared quite so well. Had big power for the lower weight division that maybe hasn’t followed him up but he still has crazy speed and agility. He’s 33 years old 5’3 and has a record of 19 wins and 9 losses overall. He’s a fast southpaw who mostly uses his hands and his speed and he has great takedown defense.

Pedro Munhoz is 31 years old is 5’6 and has a record of 15 wins and 2 losses with 9 of those wins by submission. He has ok striking but his grappling game is his world. He’s a BJJ black belt on a 4 fight win streak. The biggest danger about Munhoz, except his actual grappling ability is his ability to capitalize on mistakes and make it count. He’s a real opportunist.

So basically Munhoz probably can’t hang with Dodson in a striking match and I don’t think he will be able to take Dodson down conventionally. Could Dodson make a mistake take Munhoz can take advantage of? Absolutely, but apart from him falling into a submission I think Dodson has the speed and movement to take this one.

Prediction – Dodson by decision

Valentina Shevchenko vs Priscila Cachoeira

Shevchenko is a great fight. A judo black belt and one of the top female Muay Thai fighters in the world. She has ammased a 14-3 mma record with 2 of the 3 losses coming to bantam weight queen Amand Nunes. When the UFC recently created a 125lbs female division Valentina decided to try her luck there.

The opponent, holy shit, where did they find her. She 8-0 apparently fuck knows why. Had a look at her and she’s like a pound shop Cyborg (UK readers will get it) or a smaller Gabi Garcia. A big strong girl who trudges forward throwing one twos.

There is not much to say here. I think Valentina puts on a striking masterclass on this chick and gets the finish in the second round.

Prediction – Shevchenko by TKO (Shevchenko by Sub)

Michel Prazeres vs Desmond Green

Michel Prazeres is a stocky built motherfucker who often struggles to make 155. In fact he weighed in at 161 for this fight. Think this is the third time he’s missed weight. Outside of that he’s 36 years old, 5’6″ with a 23-2 record and he’s currently on a 5 fight win streak. He’s a strong guy with good wrestling and a great ground game and a hard right hand.

Des Green is 28 years old, tall at 5’10” and has a 20-6 record. Green is a good wrestler too and relies a lot on speed and punches to set up the takedown. In his UFC debut he beat Josh Emmett but now he’s coming off a loss to Rustam Khabilov.

In the fight Green has a speed advantage and I think he’s going to have to use it and be careful not to get reckless. I think Green will have a good first round frustrating Prazeres but later in the first and into the second the momentum will change and Prazeres gets his timing and dominates from there.

Prediction – Prazeres by decision (Prazeres by U Dec)

Timothy Johnson vs Marcelo Golm

Marcelo Golm is a big, young Brazilian who has looked very impressive so far in his fighting career. He’s 6’4 and around 240lbs and is 6-0 so far and has finished all his fights. The only question is the level of opposition he was facing but we will find out how good he really is quick enough. In his debut UFC bout he ran right through Christian Colombo but let’s face it Colombo is at the bottom of the scale.

The best I can say about Timothy Johnson is that he is big, tough and pretty hard to finish. He’s 6’4, 32 years old and 265lbs. He was a NCAA division 2 wrestler. His striking is ok, not fast or dynamic but effective due to size. His cardio ain’t great in late rounds but he keeps going.

I see this fight as a test for Golm, would be good to have an exciting young guy climbing the ranks but how far can he go? So far he has destroyed people but what happens when he can’t put a guy away so easily? Can he keep in together in the late rounds when he’s tired? All questions to be answered and they might be here….or he could smash Johnson in the first round. I’m going to say the later.

Prediction – Golm by TKO (Johnson by decision)

Thiago Santos vs Anthony Smith

Thiago Santos looks like a fighter. He’s a good sized middleweight well proportioned at 6’0 tall. He’s Brazilian with a 16-5 record with 11 by KO or TKO. He seems to have found his groove in the UFC lately with a 3 fight win streak with all 3 by stoppage. Although he is a finisher, he is a patient fighter. He doesn’t rush in, he takes his time trying to get a read on his opponent. He fights well from either stance mad has very dangerous kicks. Although he punches well he doesn’t have that great one punch knockout power instead damage is done by the accumulation of strikes. Middleweight is a pretty packed division right now but a few more wins and we’ll see where he fits in.

Here a pretty crazy stat about Anthony Smith, in 40 fight he has only gone to a decision 3 time, Thats some do or die shit. In those 40 fight he’s won 28 and lost 12. He a big boy for middleweight at 6’4″ and of course has great reach but he’s not necessarily great at keeping people out. He’s quite slow and lumbering but like I said his reach can give him an advantage and get hm out of trouble at times.

This could be a close fight. Santos is not a quick starter but it’s not like Anthony Smith is going to sprint across the cage at him. It will probably be a long feeling out process at the start at least whole both dudes try to find their distance ect, hopefully the feeling out process doesn’t last all fight. I think Santos is more likely to win if he can time the counters and punish Smith with leg kicks. In fact I’m not going against tradition. No decision here.

Prediction – Santos by decision (Santos by TKO)

Rest of The Card

Sergio Moraes vs Tim Means – Means (Moraes)

Alan Patrick vs Damir Hadzovic – Hadzovic (Patrick)

Douglas Silva De Andrade vs Marlon Vera – Vera (De Andrade)

Iuri Alcantara vs Joe Soto – Alcantara (Alcantara)

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Morales – Figueiredo (Figueiredo)

Maia Stevenson vs Polyana Viana – Viana (Viana)

Overall Picks 6/11

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